Analyzing Steel Imports in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis of Finished Product and Scrap Imports from 2010 to 2022
Introduction:
Steel is one of the most important materials used in the manufacturing sector. It is widely used in the construction, automobile, and infrastructure industries. In Pakistan, steel is mostly imported from other countries as the domestic production is not enough to meet the demand. The import of steel in Pakistan has increased over the years, and it is essential to analyze the trends to understand the market dynamics. This article will focus on the time series analysis of the import of steel (finished product and scrap) from 2010 to 2022.
Import of Steel in Pakistan:
Pakistan is the 19th largest steel importer in the world, and its imports have been steadily increasing over the years. According to the data provided by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), the import of finished steel products in Pakistan was 4.42 million metric tons in 2010, which increased to 5.52 million metric tons in 2020. Similarly, the import of steel scrap was 3.51 million metric tons in 2010, which increased to 5.68 million metric tons in 2020. This indicates that the demand for steel has been increasing in the country.
The following graph shows the trend in the import of finished steel products and steel scrap from 2010 to 2020:
The graph clearly shows that there has been a consistent increase in the import of both finished steel products and steel scrap over the years.
Product-wise Analysis:
To understand the product-wise trends in the import of steel, it is important to analyze the data by product categories. The following table shows the import of finished steel products and steel scrap by product categories in 2020:
| Product Category | Finished Steel Products (Metric Tons) | Steel Scrap (Metric Tons) |
|---|---|---|
| Flat Products | 2,455,906 | 3,583,774 |
| Long Products | 1,106,681 | 1,823,430 |
| Semis | 772,630 | 156,686 |
| Tubes | 179,242 | – |
The table shows that the majority of the import of finished steel products is in the category of flat products, which includes hot-rolled coils, cold-rolled coils, and coated steel. Similarly, the majority of the import of steel scrap is also in the category of flat products, followed by long products, which include bars, rods, and sections.
Trend Analysis:
To analyze the trends in the import of steel, we will use the time series analysis technique. The following graph shows the trend in the import of finished steel products and steel scrap from 2010 to 2020:
The graph shows that there has been a consistent increase in the import of both finished steel products and steel scrap over the years. However, there was a slight decline in the import of steel scrap in 2015 and 2016, which could be attributed to the decline in the demand for steel in the country during that period.
Forecasting:
To forecast the import of steel in Pakistan, we will use the time series forecasting technique. The following graph shows the forecast for the import of finished steel products and steel scrap from 2021 to 2022:
The graph shows that the import of both finished steel products and steel scrap is expected to increase in 2021 and 2022. The forecast for the import of finished steel products is 5.